{"id":1821,"date":"2026-05-06T10:22:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gw.adampg777.com\/?p=1821"},"modified":"2026-05-06T10:22:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:22:17","slug":"the-war-with-iran-is-over-but-the-jet-fuel-crisis-is-about-to-begin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gw.adampg777.com\/?p=1821","title":{"rendered":"The war with Iran is \u2018over\u2019 but the jet fuel crisis is about to begin"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

Jet fuel crisis will hit in June, Goldman warns<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The world\u2019s oil supply will sink to just 98 days of demand by the end of May, according to new research from Goldman Sachs. Europe\u2019s jet fuel supplies are even lower, according to analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her colleagues. In Europe, jet fuel availability will fall below the International Energy Agency\u2019s 23-day shortage threshold in June, she says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe see large risks of jet fuel shortages in Europe already this summer,\u201d Grigsby said. \u201cThe U.K. appears most at risk of jet fuel rationing given its large net imports.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

‘Days of demand’ are the number of days that fuel would run out if replenishment went to zero\u2014the qualification is that there is likely always going to be some replenishment of supply. Nonetheless, with supplies running this low, many industries will be forced to change how they operate or cease certain activities to make supplies last, <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>\u2019s Jordan Blum reports<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea could be among the hardest hit. It has already reduced its local jet fuel inventory by 66%. Japan\u2019s has been reduced by 46%. And Taiwan and the U.K. are down by 41%. The U.S., by contrast, has maintained 100% of its local supply; Europe has dwindled by only 21%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The 98-day supply of other oil products may overstate the amount of usable oil, Grigsby said in a note seen by <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>. \u201cPipelines, refineries, and storage tanks must maintain minimum oil to operate. Storage tanks with a floating roof (most crude landed storage) need to be filled by at least 20% to support the roof,\u201d she wrote. Refineries \u201ctypically need at least 15 days of crude storage onsite for smooth operations.\u201d Thus the amount of available oil may only sustain 30 to 40 days of demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Even then, \u201cmajor operational issues would likely be triggered in some locations well before reaching the global operational minimum storage level,\u201d she warned.<\/span><\/p>\n

IRAN<\/h3>\n

The war has been replaced by a stalemate\u2014for now<\/b><\/h2>\n
\n
\"\"<\/div>
The Gambia-flagged tanker Bili was anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran in early May 2026. Photo provided by Iran’s ISNA news agency.<\/figcaption>

Photo by Amirhossein KHORGOOEI \/ ISNA \/ AFP<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced<\/b> at the White House yesterday<\/span> that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation” and that the war with Iran was “over.” President Trump then said <\/span>on Truth Social<\/span> that Project Freedom\u2014the U.S. effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz\u2014\u201cwill be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Iranian media celebrated<\/b> \u201cAmerica\u2019s defeat,\u201d per the BBC.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • The blockade of the Strait<\/b> by both the U.S. and Iran remains in place, with about 22,500 crew members on 1,550 ships still stuck in the Gulf.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Yes, the situation is confusing.<\/b> Experts are scratching their heads this morning, frankly. From the U.S. point of view, assassinating the top level of the regime in Tehran has not worked. Bombing Iran has not worked. Blockading the Strait has not worked. Economic sanctions have not worked. Military experts <\/span>told the Financial Times<\/em><\/span> they are unsure what happens next.<\/span><\/p>\n

    From the Iranian point of view, blockading the Strait and retaining the capability of striking critical infrastructure in other Gulf countries has given Tehran a surprising amount of leverage, despite the destruction of the country\u2019s infrastructure and the loss of dozens of senior political and military leaders. Iran\u2019s neighbours fear the war will merely embolden it, <\/span>the WSJ<\/em> says<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The war might not be over.<\/b> The White House has declared an end to the hostilities <\/span>multiple times<\/span> only to resume fighting. Its <\/span>policy rhetoric<\/span> has taken dozens of twists and turns. And the operation never had <\/span>a clear timeline<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

    Inside Anduril: Meet the quiet engineer-CEO building America\u2019s $31 billion weapons startup<\/span> – Allie Garfinkle<\/span><\/p>\n

    A Michigan farm town voted down plans for a giant OpenAI-Oracle data center. Weeks later, construction began<\/span> – Sharon Goldman<\/span><\/p>\n

    The CEO who was told he\u2019d never run American Express has made Amex cool again\u2014and is beating JPMorgan, Visa, and the S&P 500<\/span> – Shawn Tully<\/span><\/p>\n

    Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff turned his earnings call into a vodcast. Why other Fortune 500 CEOs might follow<\/span> – Rachel Ventresca<\/span><\/p>\n

    The hidden bottleneck holding back American manufacturing isn\u2019t machines \u2014 it\u2019s knowledge<\/span> – Theo Saville<\/span><\/p>\n

    CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    AI might be destroying jobs faster than it is creating them<\/b><\/h2>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    There has been negative growth in payrolls in tech sectors linked to AI for about two years, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. That suggests AI is slowly destroying jobs, not creating them. Yesterday\u2019s <\/span>announcement by Coinbase<\/span> that it was laying off 14% of its staff because AI had made the company more efficient is Exhibit A.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Although spending on AI may be boosting GDP, \u201cThe relatively low labor intensity of the tech sector suggests this boost to growth is doing little to support the jobs market. Software and computer systems design payrolls have been grinding lower recently, as have those of computer and electronics manufacturers. Admittedly, AI probably also is boosting growth through more indirect channels, but these are trickier to quantify,\u201d Pantheon\u2019s Oliver Allen said in a recent note.<\/span><\/p>\n

    NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    5%<\/h2>\n

    The percentage of the U.S. electricity supply taken by data centers, <\/span>according to Hannah Ritchie<\/span>, the head of research at Our World in Data and a senior researcher at the University of Oxford. Across the world, the average is 1.5%. It\u2019s as high as 20% in Ireland.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

    China\u2019s Big Bet on Wind Power Is Paying Off<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

    DeepSeek nears $45bn valuation as China\u2019s \u2018Big Fund\u2019 leads investment talks<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

    Novo Nordisk stock jumps 6% after drugmaker hikes forecast as Wegovy pill sales smash forecasts<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

    Federal employment agency sues NYT for discrimination<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

    Storied Toolmaker Closes Its Last Hometown Plant\u2014and Blames Its Tape Measures<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

    ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

    Barely scraping by on $500,000 a year<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    40% of households earning $500,000-plus annually believe they live paycheck-to-paycheck\u2014a statistic Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management says is completely bonkers. \u201cIt\u2019s ridiculous to believe 40% of people making half a million dollars live paycheck-to-paycheck. Making $300k a year puts you in the top 3% of wage earners. If you make $500k a year you\u2019re in the top 1%. Come on! Paycheck-to-paycheck?! No,\u201d <\/span>he told his readers recently<\/span>, in reference to the Goldman Sachs chart above.<\/span><\/p>\n

    What’s really going on, Carlson argues, is FOMO. \u201cSocial media is full of influencers, billionaires, grifters, and people who craft fake lives that are meant to make you feel like you don\u2019t have enough money.\u201d He also notes that surveyed rates of happiness fell off a cliff after Covid and haven\u2019t yet recovered.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    #war #Iran #jet #fuel #crisis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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